Tesla Investors Brace for Impact as Delivery Estimates Face Challenges

The share price of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 40% in 2025. As concerns grow, analysts now predict that the company may not meet its expected delivery targets for March. Nevertheless, Tesla has reported its highest weekly vehicle registrations in China this year, which offers a glimmer of hope amidst the fluctuations. Here’s an overview of what the analysts are saying.

Latest Delivery Expectations

The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that Tesla is set to achieve 422,000 deliveries in March, which marks a 9% increase compared to the same month last year. However, Gene Munster, a managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, has pointed out that less optimistic estimates, or the "whisper number," suggests deliveries could be around 375,000, indicating a potential 3% decrease compared to 2024.

Munster has expressed that he anticipates an even larger drop in March deliveries. He emphasized that the forthcoming 12 days of trading will be critical for TSLA investors, stating that the upcoming performance will likely influence the narrative surrounding the stock.

Looking Ahead

Despite current concerns, Munster remains optimistic about Tesla’s future. He believes that the company, as a leader in physical AI technologies, is well-positioned for a comeback and anticipates a new vehicle launch in early 2026. Munster's long-term confidence in Tesla's prospects continues, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant as the situation develops.

China Market Performance

In addition to these figures, Gary Black, managing partner at Future Fund LLC, highlighted that China registered 15,300 new Tesla vehicles in the week ending March 16. This figure marks Tesla's highest registration rate in China for 2025. Black commented that while this is a strong performance, production issues related to the Model Y Juniper at the Giga Shanghai facility have likely hindered even more significant numbers.

Market Reactions and Analyst Predictions

As of March 17, 2025, Tesla’s market capitalization has plummeted from about $1.296 trillion at the end of 2024 to approximately $745.8 billion, reflecting a loss of about 42.47% of investor wealth this year. Mizuho recently downgraded Tesla's price target from $515 to $430, attributing this decision to weakening demand and revising their delivery projections down to 1.8 million for 2025 and 2.3 million for 2026. They have noted a significant underperformance in key markets such as the U.S., China, and Europe.

Additionally, social and political factors have emerged as issues for Tesla, including protests against the company relating to Elon Musk’s political involvement. Videos circulating on social media showcased demonstrators expressing anti-Tesla sentiments outside showrooms.

Current Stock Performance

Year-to-date, Tesla shares have decreased by approximately 37.25%, with a noted decrease of 2% in premarket trading on March 18, 2025. In comparison, the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, was down by 0.37%.

In terms of stock analysis, Benzinga’s Edge Rankings indicate a weak price trend for Tesla, although it maintains a strong ranking for momentum and quality. The current consensus price target for Tesla is set at $318.22, with a 'hold' rating based on observations from 30 analysts. The estimated price targets show a range from a low of $24.86 to a high of $550, suggesting potential for growth despite current challenges.

In summary, Tesla investors are advised to prepare for potential turbulence as delivery numbers for March come into focus. Optimism for the future remains, particularly as the brand continues to navigate complex market dynamics.

Tesla, Investors, Deliveries