Skepticism Grows Over Tesla's Robotaxi Plans Amid New Data

Tesla Inc.’s robotaxi ambitions are encountering renewed skepticism from influential market analysts, as recent data from New York City’s ride-sharing industry sparks further debate regarding the revenue potential of this technology.

What Happened: Gordon Johnson, an analyst from GLJ Research, recently expressed his views on social media, suggesting that those betting against Tesla (often referred to as Tesla shorts) may have reasons to be hopeful for the approval of robotaxis. He emphasized that the "promise" of robotaxis is far more appealing than the likely "reality."

His statement coincided with data released by veteran short-seller James Chanos, CEO of Chanos and Company, which reveals that New York City averages around 768,000 daily ride-share trips. This equates to an average of approximately three rides per person in the city each month.

Johnson tweeted, "The VERY best thing that can happen for $TSLA shorts is for robotaxis to be approved, and for the economics to become clear to all. The 'promise' is worth MUCH, MUCH more than the 'reality.'" He highlighted the concerns surrounding the practical implementation of Tesla's robotaxi system.

This skepticism starkly contrasts the optimistic outlook shared by some bullish Tesla analysts. For instance, Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities maintains a high price target of $515 for Tesla, projecting that the company's autonomous business could reach a valuation of $1 trillion. Ives envisions that robotaxis could capture approximately 20% of the ride-hailing market by the year 2030.

In a more cautious tone, Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, has set a price target of $380 for Tesla. He raised concerns about whether Tesla vehicle owners would be willing to allow their cars to be part of a robotaxi fleet, despite his estimates suggesting a potential annual income of $40,000 per vehicle from 25 daily trips at a rate of $1 per mile.

Why It Matters: Notably, Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber Technologies, has also expressed reservations about Tesla's strategy for robotaxis. Khosrowshahi pointed out that managing a ride-hailing fleet entails challenges distinct from vehicle manufacturing.

Tesla reportedly aims to roll out its ride-hailing service in Texas and California in 2025, contingent upon receiving regulatory approval. The company is in initial discussions with authorities in Austin regarding autonomous vehicle testing.

This year, Tesla's stock has risen by 71%, with Morgan Stanley identifying it as its top pick for 2025. Presently, Tesla has a consensus price target of $280.41 from 33 analysts, with recent assessments from Baird, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs averaging around $446.67.

Tesla, Robotaxi, Skepticism, Ride-sharing, Market