Tesla's 2025 Delivery Growth: Diverging Forecasts Amid Uncertainties

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is facing conflicting forecasts for its delivery growth in 2025. While analysts from Wall Street are optimistic, independent forecasts present a more cautious view. This divergence comes at a time when uncertainty looms over upcoming vehicle launches and possible changes in government policies.

Current Predictions: Gary Black, Managing Partner of The Future Fund LLC, noted that Wall Street predicts Tesla will deliver around 2.07 million vehicles in fiscal year 2025, indicating a growth of 16% from the previous year. However, well-known Tesla forecaster Troy Teslike expects a slight decline of 1% instead. This outlook contrasts sharply with CEO Elon Musk, who projected a growth rate between 20% and 30% during the company's third-quarter earnings call.

According to Black, achieving strong performance in 2025 will depend on three critical factors: the successful launch of the refreshed Model Y Juniper, consumer interest in a new $30,000-$35,000 model expected to be revealed in early 2024, and advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.

There are concerns that Wall Street might reduce its 2025 delivery forecast of 2.07 million units and its earnings expectations, which could lead to a drop in Tesla's stock price by about 13%. Black suggests the stock could fall to between $350 and $375 per share despite management's optimistic communications regarding autonomous driving.

Broader Implications: The potential removal of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit under a possible future Trump administration adds another layer of complexity. Black argues that eliminating this tax credit would disproportionately affect Tesla, as approximately 30-35% of its sales come from the U.S. market, in contrast to traditional automakers, which see only 4-5% of their EV sales from the U.S.

In contrast, Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, remains optimistic, recently adjusting Tesla’s price target upward to $550. He cites increasing confidence in demand for Tesla vehicles and the company's autonomous driving capabilities. Notably, however, Tesla's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have decreased by 39% and 45%, respectively, over the past year.

The upcoming earnings call is anticipated to be crucial, with key metrics such as the fourth-quarter automotive gross margins set to be analyzed closely. Analysts are predicting gross margins of approximately 16.2% without considering regulatory credits. In the prior quarter, margins exceeded expectations at 17.1%, though CFO Vaibhav Taneja expressed caution about maintaining these levels in the current economic landscape.

Recent Stock Performance: Tesla's shares closed at $406.58 on the last trading day, marking a decline of 1.41%. In after-hours trading, the stock saw a further decrease of 0.27%. Despite these fluctuations, Tesla's stock has risen by an impressive 121.87% over the past year, according to Benzinga Pro.

Tesla, Forecasts, Stock