Amplify Energy (AMPY) Earnings Report Expectations

Investors are looking ahead to the upcoming earnings report for Amplify Energy (AMPY - Free Report), expected to show a significant increase in earnings year-over-year driven by higher revenues. This report is for the quarter that ended in September 2024, with results expected to be released on November 6, 2024. The market consensus suggests that the actual results will be crucial for understanding how the stock may react in the near term, as actual performance will be compared to these expectations.

The earnings report is anticipated to be a critical moment for the stock. If Amplify Energy can exceed these key numbers, it could potentially lead to a rise in share price. Conversely, if the results fall short, there is a possibility that the stock will drop.

Management's commentary on business conditions during the earnings call will be vital for interpreting the immediate market reaction and setting future earnings expectations. Thus, having insight into the chances of a positive earnings surprise is valuable.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

For this quarter, analysts predict that Amplify Energy will report earnings of $0.32 per share, which would indicate a remarkable year-over-year increase of 194.1%. Furthermore, the company is expected to generate revenues of $78.87 million for the quarter, reflecting a modest growth of 2.7% compared to the same period last year.

Estimate Revisions Trend

In the past month, the consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has seen an upward revision of 11.11%, suggesting that analysts have adjusted their forecasts positively. However, it is important to note that this aggregate change does not always accurately reflect the revisions made by each individual analyst.

Earnings Whisper

Analyzing estimate revisions can provide insights into the business environment leading up to the earnings release. A tool known as the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) uses the Most Accurate Estimate to gauge performance relative to the consensus estimate. This model determines that revisions made just before an earnings release are based on the most up-to-date information, potentially leading to more accurate predictions.

A positive reading from the Earnings ESP typically indicates a higher likelihood of an earnings beat, especially when paired with a strong Zacks Rank (#1 to #3). Research shows that stocks with such a combination tend to have a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In contrast, a negative Earnings ESP reading does not guarantee an earnings miss; predicting a beat for stocks with negative ESP is statistically challenging.

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Amplify Energy?

For Amplify Energy, the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, leading to an Earnings ESP of 0%. Currently, the stock holds a Zacks Rank of #3, making predictions about surpassing consensus EPS estimates uncertain.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?

When analysts forecast future earnings, they often review the company's past performance against estimates. For Amplify Energy, the last reported quarter anticipated earnings of $0.31 per share, but it only achieved $0.17, which was a significant miss of 45.16%. Over the last year, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once.

Bottom Line

The outcome of the earnings report can influence stock prices, but it isn't the sole determining factor. Stocks can experience declines even after reporting better-than-expected earnings due to other disappointments, while unexpected positives can bolster stock prices regardless of a missed estimate. Therefore, investing in stocks with potentials to outshine earnings expectations may improve success rates. It's beneficial to check a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank before earnings are released.

Although Amplify Energy does not present a strong case for an earnings beat, it is essential for investors to consider other aspects before making decisions regarding this stock in advance of its earnings report.

An Industry Player's Expected Results

In the same industry, Gulfport Energy (GPOR - Free Report) is projected to report earnings of $2.96 per share for the quarter ended September 2024, indicating a substantial year-over-year increase of 327.7%. Revenues for the same period are expected to be $279.57 million, a 4.8% rise from the previous year. Despite a 9.2% downward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month, Gulfport currently holds an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, signifying equal estimates for performance. Combined with a Zacks Rank of #5 (Strong Sell), this suggests difficulty in predicting any outperformance of the consensus EPS estimate for Gulfport, which has also only surpassed estimates once in the last four quarters.

To stay informed about upcoming earnings announcements, refer to the earnings calendar.

Earnings, Stocks, AMPY